Red Phalarope (Phalaropus fulicarius): vulnerability to climate change
Evidence for exposure
Potential changes in breeding habitat suitability:
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Current breeding area that is likely to become less suitable (93% of current range)
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Current breeding area that is likely to remain suitable (6%)
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Current breeding area that is likely to become more suitable (1%)
Current impacts to Red Phalaropes attributed to climate change:
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No impacts have been documented for this species in Europe
Predicted changes in key prey species:
No key prey assessment was carried out for this species.
Climate change impacts outside of Europe
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In Alaska red phalaropes now lay smaller eggs on average, presumably due to lower condition. This is likely due to delayed snow melt due to higher precipitation, despite the general warming trend.
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Across California red phalaropes have declined across their wintering areas. This is likely due to changes in ocean currents and declines in prey abundance.
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Populations around Alaska have declined in some areas, or possibly redistributed, due to changes in sea ice and in key copepod prey species
Sensitivity
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The species is sensitive to changes in Arctic tern (Sterna paradisaea) populations. It relies on predator alarm warning from breeding Arctic terns, and localised populations have decreased rapidly from some breeding colonies in Greenland in the absence of Arctic terns. Any climate change impacts on Arctic terns (which are documented) are likely to have an impact on phalaropes.
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The species is restricted to high latitude wet tundra areas, which are predicted to considerably decrease in area over the next century. In some parts of its range, such habitat is already disappearing
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Changes in ENSO patterns may be a major threat, due to changes in oceanographic patterns and decreases in zooplankton, which could lead to starvation. Some recent mortalities have been linked to unusually warm weather, and this could be excerbated by climate change
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Populations sizes, trends and threats are not well understood. Probably largest threats are climate change, predation by foxes and pollution. Any changes in population or impacts is not likely to be detected rapidly. Carrying out conservation action is likely to be challenging.
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Species is sensitive to many threats, including disturbance by forestry work and tourism, ship traffic, bycatch, windfarms and heavy tourism. Nest abandonment is common when disturbed. Conservation intervention may therefore be difficult.
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Phalaropes frequently gather in large groups in relatively small areas, so are vulnerable to mass mortality through extreme events. Even localised climate change impacts may have large consequences on the population as a whole.
Adaptive capacity
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Phalaropes in Alaska are known to change their laying date in response to changes in snow melt. No known study on phenology in Europe
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Species has low site fidelity overall, red phalaropes readily change breeding sites depending on conditions. Species could potentially shift breeding sites in response to climate change
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Red phalaropes either abandon or skip breeding in particularly poor years, preserving resources. This could be adaptive if conditions become more variable and ameliorate the impact of poor breeding conditions
