Red-necked Phalarope (Phalaropus lobatus): vulnerability to climate change
Evidence for exposure
Potential changes in breeding habitat suitability:
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Current breeding area that is likely to become less suitable (91% of current range)
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Current breeding area that is likely to remain suitable (7%)
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Current breeding area that is likely to become more suitable (2%)
Current impacts to Red-necked Phalaropes attributed to climate change:
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Neutral Impact: Red-necked phalaropes have shifted north in Finland, the most southerly populations are declining while northerly populations are increasing. This shift is in correlation with climate change, but the underlying mechanism is not certain.
Predicted changes in key prey species:
No key prey assessment was carried out for this species.
Climate change impacts outside of Europe
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A study in Alaska found that phalaropes have changed their laying date in response to changes in snow melt.
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Phalaropes have responded to changes in oceanic patterns in the Indian ocean and changed their foraging areas and patterns in response.
Sensitivity
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Very little is known about several aspects of species’ ecology. The status and trends of populations is largely unknown, and so any impacts of climate change will be difficult to identify, and effective conservation action will be challenging.
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Historical changes in ENSO patterns caused severe populations crashes across America, Europe and Asia, some of which resulted in enormous mortality and local near-extinctions. Impact was likely due to heavy depletion of prey species, especially planktivorous fish. Species is likely to be sensitive to future changes in climate.
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Phalaropes appear to have limited capacity to change prey species, and are heavily dependent on some key high-energy species during the breeding period. However, this is likely to vary depending on the population.
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Key wetland breeding habitats across the Arctic are rapidly disappearing or changing. The overall impact on phalaropes is unknown, but very likely to be negative.
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Phalaropes frequently gather in large groups in relatively small areas, so are vulnerable to mass mortality through extreme events. Even localised climate change impacts may have large consequences on the population as a whole.
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The species is sensitive to changes in Arctic tern (Sterna paradisaea) populations. It relies on predator alarm warning from breeding Arctic Terns, and localised populations have decreased rapidly from some breeding colonies in Greenland in the absence of Arctic terns. Any climate change impacts on Arctic terns (which are documented) are likely to have an impact on phalaropes.
Adaptive capacity
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Phalaropes are known to change their laying date in response to change, including recent changes in climate.
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Phalaropes undergo long migrations, which are energetically demanding. Different populations use different migration strategies and have adapted for different migration challenges. This may mean the species is flexible in its migration strategy and may respond to climate change, but also that the process is highly optimised. Changes in e.g. wind direction or strength could have large impacts
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Red-necked phalaropes either abandon or skip breeding in particularly unsuitable years, preserving resources. This could be adaptive if conditions become more variable and ameliorate the impact of poor breeding conditions
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Species has low site fidelity overall, red-necked phalaropes readily change breeding sites depending on conditions. Species could potentially shift breeding sites in response to climate chang
