Leach’s Storm-petrel (Hydrobates leucorhous): vulnerability to climate change
Evidence for exposure
Potential changes in breeding habitat suitability:
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Current breeding area that is likely to become less suitable (76% of current range)
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Current breeding area that is likely to remain suitable (24%)
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Current breeding area that is likely to become more suitable (0%)
Current impacts to Leach’s Storm-petrels attributed to climate change:
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There are no impacts of climate change recorded for this species
Predicted changes in key prey species:
No key prey species are predicted to decline for this species.
Climate change impacts outside of Europe
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Leach’s storm-petrels in North America have changed their prey species and foraging strategy in response to shifts in the marine ecosystem partially driven by climate change.
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Heatwaves at population in North America have resulted in changes in diet, loss of condition and wrecks. While individual heatwaves are difficult to attribute to climate change, it is likely the frequency and intensity of such events is increasing.
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Leach’s storm-petrel reproductive success in Canada has been linked to global temperature. Warmer temperatures result in higher reproductive success, up until a certain threshold after which it decreases. The mechanism is unknown.
Sensitivity
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Species has a large population and large range but is rapidly declining across its range. The exact cause is not certain, but there are likely a number of factors, including bycatch, avian and mammal predation, pollution and disturbance. Any addition pressure from climate change is likely to accelerate these declines
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Known to wreck in great numbers in various parts of its range, especially when strong prolonged off-shore winds occur which can blow petrels far from their usual migration route. Changes in wind and storm patterns could potentially have significant impacts.
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High temperatures in other parts of the species’ range, especially heat-waves, are associated with less prey availability, loss of condition, lower reproductive output and sometimes with die-offs. An increase in temperature or heatwaves is likely to have a significant impact on breeding colonies.
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Leach’s storm-petrels rely on wind conditions to soar and use as little energy as possible. Changes in wind strength, direction and patterns could heavily impact energy use and migration paths.
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This species has a long generation length (>10 years), which may slow recovery from severe impacts and increases population extinction risk
Adaptive capacity
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Leach’s storm-petrel has a flexible migration strategy, and changes its migration route, stop-overs and wintering areas based on conditions. Local changes on migration routes are unlikely to have a major impact
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Leach’s storm-petrel is known to change prey species and foraging areas in responses to changes in conditions. They have a very large foraging range and local changes in climate are therefore less likely to have a large impact.
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Analysis of laying dates has shown that, regardless of SST and weather conditions, there is little variance in shearwater phenology. It is unlikely they will adapt their laying date to changing conditions.
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Species has very high fidelity to breeding areas. Unlikely to disperse and colonise new areas readily.
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There is very limited mixing between populations in storm-petrels, this can be adaptive (as it increase likelihood of local adaptation) or non-adaptive (as immigration to support populations is unlikely).
