Appendix 1: Sources and references for vulnerability assessment
1.1 Evidence for exposure (references)
1.1.1 Current impacts attributed to climate change:
Cory’s Shearwater 1 - Lower prey availability during the breeding season results in changes in foraging patterns, lower adult condition, and lower chick condition- Pereira, Jorge M., et al. “Facing extremes: Cory’s shearwaters adjust their foraging behaviour differently in response to contrasting phases of North Atlantic Oscillation.” Regional Environmental Change 20.3 (2020): 1-13. Extreme positive and negative NAO indexes drastically impact adult foraging patterns, adult condition, and chick condition, very likely because of changes in prey availability. The extreme climate events observed are likely driven by climate change. Study in Berlengas and Corvo Islands.
- Munilla, Ignacio, et al. “Colony foundation in an oceanic seabird.” PloS one 11.2 (2016): e0147222. Cory’s shearwaters have established several breeding colonies in Galicia, an area they have never historically been associated with. The authors note this is a rare event, as, like most shearwaters, Cory’s shearwaters have high site fidelity. The cause is unknown, but the authors hypothesis the underlying cause is generally warming condition and shift of warm-water prey species north.
- Grosbois, Vladimir, and Paul M. Thompson. “North Atlantic climate variation influences survival in adult fulmars.” Oikos 109.2 (2005): 273-290. Adult survival decreased over the study period, in correlation with winter climate conditions (WNAO). Mechanism unknown. Study in Eynhallow, Orkneys.
- Lewis, Sue, et al. “Effects of extrinsic and intrinsic factors on breeding success in a long lived seabird.” Oikos 118.4 (2009): 521-528. Confirms the former using data from the same population (Eynhallow, Orkneys). Effects of NAO (and increased winter SST) have a negative, lagged impact on fulmar breeding success.
- Wanless, Sarah, et al. “Long-term changes in breeding phenology at two seabird colonies in the western North Sea.” Ibis 151.2 (2009): 274-285. Fulmars in the North Sea have changed their laying date, presumably due to changes in temperature and prey availability in breeding and/or non-breeding areas. Study on Isle of May, Scotland.
- Burthe, Sarah J., et al. “Assessing the vulnerability of the marine bird community in the western North Sea to climate change and other anthropogenic impacts.” Marine Ecology Progress Series 507 (2014): 277-295. Fulmar productivity decreases as sea surface temperature gets higher. Probably due to prey availability, study focusses on seabirds in Forth and Tay region.
- Zuberogoitia, Iñigo, et al. “Assessing the impact of extreme adverse weather on the biological traits of a European storm petrel colony.” Population ecology 58.2 (2016): 303-313. Reproductive breeding success was lower, later moulting and more skipped breeding occurred in years following a winter with adverse weather. Protracted periods of continuous gale-force winds prevents petrels from feeding, and they become exhausted and severely weakened. Study was in Aketx colony (Biscay, north of Spain).
- Matovic, Nikola, et al. “Disentangling the effects of predation and oceanographic fluctuations in the mortality of two allopatric seabird populations.” Population Ecology 59.3 (2017): 225-238. Mortality of Storm-petrels breeding in Brittany (France) is highly correlated to climatic indexes reflecting incidence of heavy storms. The authors note that increased frequency of storms may become an increasingly important cause of population limitation in Storm-petrels
- Riou, Samuel, et al. “Recent impacts of anthropogenic climate change on a higher marine predator in western Britain.” Marine Ecology Progress Series 422 (2011): 105-112. In warmer years, prey is less available and adults must forage further to find prey. As a result, adults breed later and chicks reach lower peak and fledgling status. Study conducted on Skomer Island over several breeding seasons.
1.1.2 Change in European range size between present day and 2100:
Using a species distribution model (SDM) we correlated species occurrence during the breeding season with a number of terrestrial and marine environmental variables. Species range data came from the European Breeding Bird Atlas (EBBA2) database. Present-day and 2100 terrestrial data were downloaded from the WorldClim database. We used data from the MRI-ESM2 general circulation model (GCM), which is a high-performing model over Europe. Present-day and 2100 marine data were downloaded from the Bio-Oracle database which averages predictions of marine variables from several different atmospheric-oceanic general circulation models (AOGCMS; for full details see Assis et al., 2017). For the map presented in the summary we used representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5, which is an “intermediate” emissions scenario. All data were at 5-minute resolution.
- For Cory’s Shearwater, Northern Fulmar, Band-rumped Storm-petrel, Leach’s Storm-petrel, European Storm-petrel, and Manx Shearwater we included the following terrestrial variables: Mean temperature of the warmest month, precipitation during breeding season, isolation of landmass, area of landmass, distance to sea
- For Cory’s Shearwater, Northern Fulmar, Band-rumped Storm-petrel, Leach’s Storm-petrel, European Storm-petrel, and Manx Shearwater we included the following marine variables: Sea surface temperature (during the winter), salinity, maximum chlorophyll concentration, bathymetry (depth and variance)
Several other variables may strongly influence the distribution ofpetrels and shearwatersand it is not possible to include all possible variables in a given model. However the following variables have previously been found to be important to predicting the distribution of petrels and shearwaters in Europe: average wind speed during breeding season, presence of stable ocean fronts (or bathymetric proxy). For local assessments of climate change, we recommend these variables are strongly considered. We hope to incorporate these variables into future versions of this guidance document.
After running our model we generated a present-day map where every grid-cell is given a habitat suitability score between 0 and 1, where 1 is very suitable habitat and 0 is not at all suitable. We then compared this with a corresponding map built with 2100 data, and highlighted currently inhabitated areas where 1) suitability drops sharply (i.e. by more than 0.1) and 2) suitability drops below a probability threshold set by the model. Conversely we also highlighted areas where suitability rose sharply and above a given threshold. While a drop in habitat suitability is likely to result in population declines, it is not a certainty, and it does not mean that a population will be extinct in 2100 or that a population is doomed to extinction. With conservation action and careful management, along with changes in human behaviour, such declines may be mitigated or in some cases prevented. For a full explanation of the model see the accompanying ‘Methodology’ document.
Underlying data were downloaded from:- Keller, V., Herrando, S., Voríšek, P., Franch, M., Kipson, M., Milanesi, P., Martí, D., Anton, M., Klvanová, A., Kalyakin, M.V., Bauer, H.-G. & Foppen, R.P.B. (2020). European Breeding Bird Atlas 2: Distribution, Abundance and Change. European Bird Census Council & Lynx Edicions, Barcelona. Source of range data
- Fick, S. E., & Hijmans, R. J. (2017). Worldclim 2: New 1-km spatial resolution climate surfaces for global land areas. International Journal of Climatology. http://worldclim.org/version2. Source of present-day and 2100 terrestrial data.
- Assis, J., Tyberghein, L., Bosch, S., Verbruggen, H., Serrão, E. A., & De Clerck, O. (2018). Bio-ORACLE v2.0: Extending marine data layers for bioclimatic modelling. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 27(3), 277–284. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12693. Source of present-day and 2100 marine data
1.1.3 Changes in key prey species:
We first identified the key prey species for each species. This can be variable across a species range, but if available evidence suggested at least one major population is highly dependent on a particular prey species, then typically this species would be included. Lists of prey species were compiled from published sources, then verified and expanded following consultation with conservation practitioners. Afterwards we compiled current and projected maps of prey ranges to assess where key prey species may disappear in the near future. If any of the key species are predicted to vanish or drastically reduce in abundance in the current foraging range a given species, we marked this on the summary map. We used several sources to collate range information, but for preference we used data from COPERNICUS as they include projected abundance. For species where this was not available we used habitat suitability instead. In all cases we used RCP 4.5, which is an “intermediate” emissions scenario. For species in the COPERNICUS database we used the 0.6 maximum sustainable yield parameter, which assumes international co-operation to work towards fish-stock sustainability. Our assessment is therefore relatively conservative in terms of changes in prey species.
Cory’s Shearwater key prey species: saury (Scombresox saurus), chub mackerel (Scomber colias), sardines (Sardina pilchardus) and garfish (Belone belone). This species also preys frequently on cephalopod and other fish, however these were not included in the assessment. Prey species list was compiled from:- Alonso, H., Granadeiro, J.P., Paiva, V.H., Dias, A.S., Ramos, J.A., & Catry, P. 2012. Parent–offspring dietary segregation of Cory’s shearwaters breeding in contrasting environments. Mar Biol 159:1197–1207
- Phillips, R. A., et al. “Diet of the northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis: reliance on commercial fisheries?.” Marine Biology 135.1 (1999): 159-170.
- Mallory, M. L., S. A. Hatch, and D. N. Nettleship (2020). Northern Fulmar (Fulmarus glacialis), version 1.0. In Birds of the World (S. M. Billerman, Editor). Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY, USA. https://doi.org/10.2173/bow.norful.01
- Carreiro, Ana Rita, et al. “Metabarcoding, stables isotopes, and tracking: unraveling the trophic ecology of a winter-breeding storm petrel (Hydrobates castro) with a multimethod approach.” Marine Biology 167.2 (2020): 1-13.
- Hedd, April, and William A. Montevecchi. “Diet and trophic position of Leach’s storm-petrel Oceanodroma leucorhoa during breeding and moult, inferred from stable isotope analysis of feathers.” Marine Ecology Progress Series 322 (2006): 291-301.
- Carboneras, C., F. Jutglar, and G. M. Kirwan (2021). European Storm-Petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus), version 1.1. In Birds of the World (Editor not available). Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY, USA. https://doi.org/10.2173/bow.bripet.01.1
- D’Elbee, Jean., and Georges Hemery. “Diet and foraging behaviour of the British Storm Petrel Hydrobates pelagicus in the Bay of Biscay during summer.” Ardea 86.1 (1998): 1-10.
- Riou, Samuel, et al. “Recent impacts of anthropogenic climate change on a higher marine predator in western Britain.” Marine Ecology Progress Series 422 (2011): 105-112.
- Lee, D. S., J. C. Haney, C. Carboneras, F. Jutglar, and G. M. Kirwan (2020). Manx Shearwater (Puffinus puffinus), version 1.0. In Birds of the World (S. M. Billerman, Editor). Cornell Lab of Ornithology, Ithaca, NY, USA. https://doi.org/10.2173/bow.manshe.01
- COPERNICUS. (2021). Fish abundance and catch data for the Northwest European Shelf and Mediterranean Sea from 2006 to 2098 derived from climate projections. https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.39c97304
- Kesner-Reyes, K., Kaschner, K., Kullander, S., Garilao, C., Barile, J., & Froese., R. (2019). AquaMaps: Predicted range maps for aquatic species. In R. Froese & D. Pauly (Eds.), FishBase. https://www.aquamaps.org
1.1.4 Climate change impacts outside of Europe
Cory’s Shearwater In several parts of their breeding range, such as in the Azores, Cory’s shearwaters adult survival is lower in warmer temperatures, likely because of associated changes in prey availability.- Ramos, Raül, et al. “Combined spatio-temporal impacts of climate and longline fisheries on the survival of a trans-equatorial marine migrant.” PLoS One 7.7 (2012): e40822.
- Hedd, A., et al. “Diets and distributions of Leach’s storm-petrel (Oceanodroma leucorhoa) before and after an ecosystem shift in the Northwest Atlantic.” Canadian Journal of Zoology 87.9 (2009): 787-801.
- D’Entremont, K., et al. “On-land foraging by Leach’s Storm Petrels Oceanodroma leucorhoa coincides with anomalous weather conditions.” Marine Ornithology 49 (2021): 247-252.
- Mauck, Robert A., Donald C. Dearborn, and Charles E. Huntington. “Annual global mean temperature explains reproductive success in a marine vertebrate from 1955 to 2010.” Global change biology 24.4 (2018): 1599-1613.
- Tavares, Davi C., et al. “Mortality of seabirds migrating across the tropical Atlantic in relation to oceanographic processes.” Animal Conservation 23.3 (2020): 307-319.
1.2 Sensitivity (references)
We used a list of candidate traits based on that in Foden & Young (2016) that indicate high sensitivity and identified which, if any, petrels and shearwaters possessed. In brief, we consulted published literature as well as expert knowledge and online databases such as Birdlife (http://datazone.birdlife.org/) and Birds of the World (https://birdsoftheworld.org), to assess whether petrels and shearwaters have either 1) Specialised habitat and/or microhabitat requirement 2) Environmental tolerances or thresholds (at any life stage) that are likely to be exceeded due to climate change 3) Dependence on environmental triggers that are likely to be disrupted by climate change, 4) Dependence on interspecific interactions that are likely to be disrupted by climate change or 5) High rarity.
For more detail and a full list of traits see:- Foden, W. B., & Young, B. E. (2016). IUCN SSC guidelines for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change. Version 1.0 (Occasional paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59)
1.3 Adaptive capacity (references)
We used a list of candidate traits based on that in Foden & Young (2016) that indicate adaptive capacity and identified which, if any, petrels and shearwaters possessed. In brief, we consulted published literature as well as expert knowledge and online databases such as Birdlife (http://datazone.birdlife.org/) and Birds of the World (https://birdsoftheworld.org), to assess whether petrels and shearwaters have either: 1) High phenotypic plasticity. 2) High dispersal ability or 3) High evolvability.
For more detail and a full list of traits see:- Foden, W. B., & Young, B. E. (2016). IUCN SSC guidelines for assessing species’ vulnerability to climate change. Version 1.0 (Occasional paper of the IUCN Species Survival Commission No. 59)