Black-legged Kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla): vulnerability to climate change
Evidence for exposure
Potential changes in breeding habitat suitability:
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Current breeding area that is likely to become less suitable (60% of current range)
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Current breeding area that is likely to remain suitable (40%)
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Current breeding area that is likely to become more suitable (0%)
Current impacts to Black-legged Kittiwakes attributed to climate change:
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Negative Impact: Decreased prey availability due to warmer seas has led to lower breeding success
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Neutral Impact: Kittiwake diet has changed significantly due to climate-change driven shift in prey assemblage. However, so far this has not resulted in any demonstrated change in breeding success.
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Neutral Impact: Kittiwake populations have shifted their range in response to changes in distribution of key prey species.
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Neutral Impact: Climate change has contributed to a range shift in several helminth parasites, which has led to kittiwakes being exposed to novel parasites, as well as increased parasite load. Effect on population is unknown, but most likely negative.
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Negative Impact: Higher sea temperatures correlate with lower breeding success. Mechanism unknown, but likely mediated through prey availability
Predicted changes in key prey species:
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Key prey species are likely to decline in abundance in the Irish Sea, throughout the English Channel and along the Brittany Coast.
Climate change impacts outside of Europe
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Recent heatwaves in the North Pacific have resulted in mass mortality and wide-spread breeding failure at kittiwake colonies
Sensitivity
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There appears to be strong variation in regional responses to climate change. The impacts of climate change on kittiwakes in Scotland have not been seen elsewhere in the UK. In addition, there is some debate on whether the drastic declines of kittiwake colonies in Scotland were primarily due to climate change or fisheries. The sensitivity of different populations to climate change is likely to vary
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Large kittiwake colonies in boreal NE Atlantic are supported indirectly by copepods (as they form the basis of the marine food chain), projections of copepod abundance suggest they will range shift north and result in large impacts on seabird colonies
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Many kittiwake colonies are dependent on the timing of availability of key prey species, such as sandeels. Key prey species such as sandeels are known to be sensitive to warming temperatures, which may result in a phenological mismatch
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Kittiwakes forage at or near the surface. If climate change results in more frequent or prolonged storms or prey moving into deeper water, it is likely to have significant impacts on kittiwake foraging.
Adaptive capacity
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There is some tentative evidence that kittiwakes can adaptively change their phenology based on studies in Svalbard. Populations in Scotland have also changed their laying date, possibly related to conditions in breeding and non-breeding areas.
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Under the right circumstances, kittiwakes can establish new colonies. While they tend to have some site fidelity (especially adults), they have been observed to colonise new areas over time if new areas are particularly high-quality or if previous area is disturbed.
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Kittiwakes occasionally use urban habitats and resources, especially where artificial nesting habitat is available, which may buffer populations if natural diet or habitat is limited.
